The likelihood of a new military escalation against Iran is rapidly increasing and, according to a number of indicators, could materialize in the very coming days or even within 24 hours, according to Reuters. What is happening increasingly resembles the scenario of the previous summer escalation, when preparations for the force phase were carried out using already tested patterns.
Key signs of preparations for a military escalation against Iran:
1. Western states are urgently recommending that their citizens leave the territory of Iran.
2. The United States is strengthening its military presence in the Middle East, including the redeployment of strike aircraft, tankers, and support aircraft.
3. Partial evacuation of personnel is being carried out from American bases that are most vulnerable to Iranian missiles.
4. At official and semi-official levels, direct statements are being made about the possibility of a strike in the coming days.
5. Negotiation and diplomatic processes have effectively been halted.
6. Israel is rapidly deploying additional air defense and missile defense systems.
7. Ships of a U.S. carrier strike group have already entered the region (so far without an aircraft carrier), which increases military pressure.
Additional tension was introduced by information from the Reuters agency. Citing a European official, it is reported that Washington is considering the option of striking Iran within the next 24 hours. Against this backdrop, U.S. military forces are allegedly withdrawing from key facilities in the Middle East, fearing retaliatory actions by Tehran.
After the failure of attempts to apply pressure through internal destabilization and “color” scenarios, the United States and Israel apparently are placing their bets on direct military aggression aimed at undermining or dismantling the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this case, Tehran will be forced to respond harshly, defending its sovereignty. This could involve direct strikes on Israeli territory, on U.S. military bases in the region, as well as the closure of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, which would inevitably hit global energy markets.
The current situation once again highlights how vulnerable Iran’s political decision to renounce possession of nuclear weapons has proven to be. In the context of a direct military threat, this decision could play a fatal role if events follow the most жесткий and force-based scenario.
